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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1720Z May 18, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 119 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 00Z Sun May 19 2024 - 00Z Tue May 21 2024 ...Increasing severe weather and excessive rainfall threats over the Central U.S. through early next week... ...Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas, building into the southern High Plains this weekend... Stormy conditions should wind down across the central Gulf coast while persisting along a quasi-stationary boundary over Florida through Sunday. Attention shifts toward the Central U.S. on Sunday and into early next week as a deep mid-level low digs into the West. A surface low pressure system will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Great Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Despite the Excessive Rainfall threat being Marginal (at least 5%), the Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of western and central Kansas on Sunday. Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible according to the SPC. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for portions of Nebraska, Kansas, southwest Iowa and northwest Missouri. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats from these storms. Additionally, some light snow to moderate snowfall is possible on the backside of this system in the Northern Rockies over the next couple of days. Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South Florida and southern Texas this weekend, and expand in coverage into portions of the southern High Plains. Forecast highs will be in the 90s for Florida with mid-90s to mid-100s in Texas, potentially record-tying/breaking levels. When combined with the humidity, heat indices will soar to near 110 in South Florida. While not quite as hot, temperatures will still be well above average more broadly across much of the country this weekend, particularly from the Central Plains into the Midwest where highs in the 80s to near 90 will be common. Highs will also be above average for portions of the West, with 70s and 80s in the Great Basin/interior California and 90s to low 100s in the Desert Southeast. More temperate, below average conditions are expected along much of the East Coast, with 50s and 60s in New England and 60s and 70s into the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. The Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies will also be cooler, with highs in the 50s and 60s expected here as well. Variable temperatures are forecast for the Southeast due to ongoing storms, with mainly 80s expected. Kebede/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php