Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 00Z Sun May 19 2024 - 00Z Tue May 21 2024

...Increasing severe weather and excessive rainfall threats over the
Central U.S. through early next week...

...Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas,
building into the southern High Plains this weekend...

Stormy conditions should wind down across the central Gulf coast while
persisting along a quasi-stationary boundary over Florida through Sunday.
Attention shifts toward the Central U.S. on Sunday and into early next
week as a deep mid-level low digs into the West. A surface low pressure
system will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Great
Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Despite the
Excessive Rainfall threat being Marginal (at least 5%), the Storm
Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms across portions of western and central Kansas on Sunday.
Significant damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes
are all possible according to the SPC. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms is in effect for portions of Nebraska, Kansas, southwest
Iowa and northwest Missouri. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the
primary threats from these storms. Additionally, some light snow to
moderate snowfall is possible on the backside of this system in the
Northern Rockies over the next couple of days.

Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South Florida and
southern Texas this weekend, and expand in coverage into portions of the
southern High Plains. Forecast highs will be in the 90s for Florida with
mid-90s to mid-100s in Texas, potentially record-tying/breaking levels.
When combined with the humidity, heat indices will soar to near 110 in
South Florida. While not quite as hot, temperatures will still be well
above average more broadly across much of the country this weekend,
particularly from the Central Plains into the Midwest where highs in the
80s to near 90 will be common. Highs will also be above average for
portions of the West, with 70s and 80s in the Great Basin/interior
California and 90s to low 100s in the Desert Southeast. More temperate,
below average conditions are expected along much of the East Coast, with
50s and 60s in New England and 60s and 70s into the
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas. The Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies will also
be cooler, with highs in the 50s and 60s expected here as well. Variable
temperatures are forecast for the Southeast due to ongoing storms, with
mainly 80s expected. 

Kebede/Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php